Before a critical release, review expectations, conditional scenarios and the details that matter.
A framework for assessing selected critical events before release. Content depends on the event and available sources.
For traders
Instead of starting from scratch when news arrives, consider in advance which figures to read together and what might change your initial interpretation.
For investors
Connect a release with the economic outlook, financing conditions, company revenue and costs.
Which questions does the analysis address?
| Research topic | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Forecast and previous value | Assess how far a release differs from expectations |
| The central bank’s current priorities (for central bank analysis) | Understand which figures may carry greater weight |
| How much expectations are reflected in prices | Explore why strong data may not produce a price rise |
| Leading indicators | Read a release alongside earlier information |
| Components | Look for a different picture beneath the headline |
| Revisions and trends | Avoid overlooking changes to earlier data |
| Pre-event price action | Assess what happened before the release |
| Links across rates, currencies, commodities and equities | Consider the channels through which an event may affect an asset |
| Positioning and volatility, where sourced | Explore whether the market is concentrated around one expectation |
| Comparable historical reactions | Avoid assuming the first move will persist |
| Conflicting components | Look for information that could change the initial reading |
| What to watch after a release | Set a reading order for the first seconds and following minutes |
These topics define the research scope; not every report has information for every field.
The first 30 seconds and following 5–15 minutes
First 30 seconds
Which figures should be read first?
Following 5–15 minutes
Which market responses should be watched next?
Conditional scenarios, not one-way predictions
The difference from expectations matters, and market reactions depend on economic conditions. Conditional scenarios help you prepare without assuming one outcome.
Event and analyst files
Look beyond the headline of a major event.
Selected event files cover background, importance, affected markets and developments in greater detail.
Hypothetical example
Suppose employment beats expectations, but wage growth slows and the previous month is revised down. Read those conflicting signals together rather than relying on the strong headline alone.